Heat vs. Cavaliers Picks and Prediction – 4/23/2025

Miami Heat (44-38) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (56-26)
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Location: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH
TV: NBA TV

Previous Game:

  • Cavaliers: Won Game 1, 121-100

  • Heat: Outscored by 13 in the 4th quarter of Game 1

Head-to-Head:

The Cavaliers looked dominant in the series opener, shooting 51% from the field and draining 18 threes en route to a 21-point blowout. Miami struggled with turnovers (14-7 margin) and couldn’t keep up late despite a solid performance from Bam Adebayo.

Miami Heat Breakdown:

Miami has gone 5-5 over their last 10, and while their defense ranks 11th in the league, their offensive inconsistency continues to haunt them. In Game 1, Adebayo led the way with 24 points and 9 rebounds, while Herro and Mitchell added scoring support. Still, the Heat’s depth issues and late-game fade raise concern.

Key Players:

  • Bam Adebayo: 24 points, 9 rebounds in Game 1

  • Tyler Herro: 21 points, -18 plus/minus

  • Davion Mitchell: 20 points, 9 assists off the bench

Cleveland Cavaliers Breakdown:

The Cavs have been elite at home all year, going 34-7 in the regular season. Their offense was in full rhythm in Game 1, scoring 121.9 points per game over their last 10. Donovan Mitchell dropped 30 points, while the bench poured in 50+ with Ty Jerome and Garland combining for 55. Their deep scoring threats and efficient shooting make them a nightmare to defend.

Key Players:

  • Donovan Mitchell: 30 points, 5 rebounds

  • Ty Jerome: 28 points in 26 minutes

  • Darius Garland: 27 points, 5 assists

Betting Trends:

Miami Heat:

  • 6-4 ATS in last 10

  • 8-2 to the OVER in last 10

  • Lost turnover battle by 7 in Game 1

Cleveland Cavaliers:

  • 5-5 ATS in last 10

  • 6-4 SU in last 10

  • Covered -12 in 3 of last 5 home games

Exact Score Prediction:

Cleveland Cavaliers 112 – Miami Heat 105

Our Best Bet:

Miami Heat +11.5 (-110)

Despite the Game 1 blowout, Miami has been solid against the spread and typically bounces back well after a loss. Expect more urgency tonight, especially from veterans like Herro and Adebayo. Cleveland may win again, but this number feels inflated based on one hot shooting night. The Heat should make this one more competitive and cover the double-digit spread.

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