Hawks vs. Heat Picks and Prediction – 3/27/2025

Atlanta Hawks (35-37) vs. Miami Heat (31-41)
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Location: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
TV: NBA League Pass

Previous Games:

  • Hawks: 121-114 loss at Houston

  • Heat: 112-86 win vs. Golden State

Head-to-Head:

Miami has dominated this matchup at home, winning 9 of their last 11 home games against Atlanta. However, Atlanta comes into this game on a strong run of form with a 7-3 record over their last 10 games, while the Heat have struggled, winning just 2 of their last 10 contests.

Atlanta Hawks Breakdown:

The Hawks have been excellent offensively, averaging 121.5 points per game over the last 10 games. Despite struggling with their three-point shooting in their last game (15-for-49), they are still one of the highest-scoring teams in the league. Trae Young continues to lead the offense with 24.1 points and 9.7 assists per game, while Onyeka Okongwu provides a strong presence in the paint with 11.5 rebounds per game. Atlanta’s defense has been a little leaky, allowing 116.9 points per game, but their offensive firepower should help them overcome that against a Miami team that’s struggling.

Key Players:

  • Trae Young: 24.1 points, 9.7 assists

  • Onyeka Okongwu: 11.5 rebounds

Miami Heat Breakdown:

Miami has had major issues recently, particularly on offense, averaging just 103.7 points per game in their last 10 games. However, they found their rhythm against Golden State, shooting 56 percent from the field. Bam Adebayo is their key player, posting 27 points in the win, while Tyler Herro provides scoring and playmaking support with 20.6 points and 4.6 assists. However, the Heat will need to step up defensively and improve their offense if they want to keep pace with the high-scoring Hawks.

Key Players:

  • Bam Adebayo: 27 points, 8 rebounds

  • Tyler Herro: 20.6 points, 4.6 assists

Betting Trends:

Atlanta Hawks:

  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games

  • O/U is 4-1 in their last 5 games

  • 7-3 SU in their last 10 games

Miami Heat:

  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games

  • O/U is 9-4 in their last 13 games

  • 9-2 SU in their last 11 home games against Atlanta

Exact Score Prediction:

Atlanta Hawks 118 – Miami Heat 111

Our Best Bet:

Atlanta Hawks +1.5 (-110)

Given their recent form and offensive potency, Atlanta should cover the spread. Miami has struggled both on offense and defense, and while they may be able to keep this game close, the Hawks should pull away late. Look for Trae Young to lead the charge as Atlanta secures a close win on the road.

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