Grizzlies vs. Thunder Picks and Prediction – 4/20/2025

Memphis Grizzlies (47-37) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14)
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
TV: ABC

Previous Games:

  • Grizzlies: Beat Mavericks 120-106 in Play-In to secure 8th seed

  • Thunder: Won 4 straight to end the season, most recently beat Pelicans 115-100

Head-to-Head:

These teams split their regular-season series, but Oklahoma City enters the playoffs as the top seed in the West, riding a hot streak and dominant home form. Memphis enters as the 8th seed after battling through the Play-In, and will need a near-perfect game to keep up with the Thunder’s firepower.

Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown:

Memphis has been gritty in recent matchups, covering +13 spreads in 8 of their last 10 and 5 straight road games. Ja Morant is averaging 23.2 PPG and 7.3 APG, with help from Jaren Jackson Jr. (22.2 PPG) and Zach Edey (8.3 RPG). Offensively, the Grizzlies put up 121.7 PPG on 47.9% FG and 36.7% from deep. However, defensively they’ve allowed 114.4 PPG over their last 10 and are stepping into an arena where the Thunder rarely miss.

Key Players:

  • Ja Morant: 23.2 PPG, 7.3 APG

  • Jaren Jackson Jr.: 22.2 PPG

  • Zach Edey: 8.3 RPG

Oklahoma City Thunder Breakdown:

Oklahoma City is arguably the hottest team entering the playoffs, finishing 15-2 ATS in their last 17 and winning 8 of their last 10 games. They’re averaging 125.2 PPG, led by MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (32.7 PPG, 6.4 APG). The Thunder also boast the 2nd-best defense in the NBA, allowing just 107.6 PPG on the season. Combine elite offense with lockdown defense and you’ve got a team built to dominate early in a playoff series.

Key Players:

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 32.7 PPG, 6.4 APG

  • Jalen Williams: 21.6 PPG

  • Isaiah Hartenstein: 10.7 RPG

Betting Trends:

Memphis Grizzlies:

  • Covered +13 in 8 of last 10 games

  • OVER has hit in 4 of last 5

Oklahoma City Thunder:

  • 15-2 ATS in last 17 games

  • 4th in NBA in scoring, 2nd in defense

Exact Score Prediction:

Oklahoma City Thunder 127 – Memphis Grizzlies 112

Our Best Bet:

Oklahoma City Thunder -13.5 (-110)

The Thunder are covering machines and have both the firepower and defensive discipline to blow out teams like Memphis, especially at home. While the Grizzlies have shown resilience, Oklahoma City’s recent dominance, elite two-way play, and ATS trends point to a convincing Game 1 win and cover.

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