Clippers vs. Nuggets Picks and Prediction – 5/3/2025

Los Angeles Clippers (51-31, #4 Seed) vs. Denver Nuggets (57-25, #1 Seed)
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
TV: TNT, truTV, Max

Previous Games:

  • Clippers: Snapped a 2-game skid with a 111-105 Game 6 win behind James Harden’s 28 points

  • Nuggets: Shot 52.4% in Game 6 but were undone by 14 turnovers

Head-to-Head:

This series has been a back-and-forth battle, with the Clippers forcing Game 7 behind strong perimeter shooting and improved defense. Historically, Denver holds a mental edge in elimination games at home—remember the 2020 bubble comeback. However, the Clippers have covered the spread in 13 of their last 20, including in multiple games this series.

Los Angeles Clippers Breakdown:

The Clippers are averaging 113.8 PPG over their last 10, while holding opponents to 108.7 PPG. They're shooting a sharp 50.6% from the field and 39% from deep. Harden (24.0 PPG, 9.3 APG) has stepped up in the playoffs, and Zubac (11.6 RPG) has dominated the glass. Kawhi Leonard's health remains a concern, but the team has found ways to produce offensively without him.

Key Players:

  • James Harden: 24.0 PPG, 9.3 APG, 42.3% 3PT

  • Ivica Zubac: 11.6 RPG, 1.3 BPG

Denver Nuggets Breakdown:

Denver has won 6 of its last 10, leaning heavily on Nikola Jokic (25.7 PPG, 12.1 RPG, 10.7 APG), who continues to put up MVP-level numbers. The Nuggets are shooting 48.9% from the field and 39.7% from 3PT, but their Achilles heel has been ball control, averaging 13.2 turnovers per game in the series. Jamal Murray (23.8 PPG) is still a threat but has been streaky.

Key Players:

  • Nikola Jokic: 25.7 PPG, 12.1 RPG, 10.7 APG

  • Jamal Murray: 23.8 PPG, 2.1 3PM (40.4%)

Betting Trends:

Los Angeles Clippers:

  • 13-6-1 ATS in last 20 games

  • UNDER in 4 of last 6

Denver Nuggets:

  • 3-14 ATS in last 17 home games

  • UNDER in 4 of last 6

  • 6-4 in last 10 overall

Exact Score Prediction:

Denver Nuggets 106 – Los Angeles Clippers 98

Our Best Bet:

UNDER 205.5 (-110)

Game 7s tend to tighten up, and this one has all the makings of a physical, grind-it-out battle. Both teams rank in the top half defensively during the postseason, and the UNDER has cashed in 4 of 6 games this series. Denver’s home ATS struggles and LA’s efficient half-court game also point to a slower tempo. This total is low for a reason—and it still might not be low enough.

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