Bucks vs. Pacers Picks and Prediction – 4/29/2025

Milwaukee Bucks (49-33) vs. Indiana Pacers (47-35)
Time: 6:00 PM ET
Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
TV: NBA TV

Previous Games:

  • Pacers: Coming off a dominant 129-103 win in Milwaukee

  • Bucks: Lost 3 straight, trail series 3-1

Head-to-Head:

Indiana leads the series 3-1 and has won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Milwaukee. The Pacers have shown they’re more cohesive on both ends of the court, especially with Lillard now sidelined.

Milwaukee Bucks Breakdown:

Milwaukee is on the verge of a first-round exit for the third straight year. Already without Giannis Antetokounmpo, they now lose Damian Lillard to an Achilles injury suffered early in Game 4. That leaves the Bucks without their two biggest stars in an elimination game on the road. Milwaukee’s bench produced some energy behind Kevin Porter Jr.’s 23 points last game, but their starting unit was lifeless, combining for just 15 total points outside of Giannis. The Bucks are simply running out of firepower.

Key Players:

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo: 28 pts, 15 reb, 6 ast (Game 4)

  • Kevin Porter Jr.: 23 pts, 6 ast off the bench

Indiana Pacers Breakdown:

Indiana has been electric in this series and is looking to close it out at home where they’ve gone 15-2 in their last 17 games. They are shooting 60% from the field in Game 4 and dishing out 36 assists, showcasing their unselfish, fast-paced offense. Tyrese Haliburton is controlling the tempo with precision, and the Pacers are getting meaningful production across the board. With Milwaukee’s roster depleted, Indiana has all the tools to dominate again and advance.

Key Players:

  • Myles Turner: 23 pts, 5 reb (Game 4)

  • Tyrese Haliburton: 17 pts, 15 ast

  • Andrew Nembhard: 20 pts, +20 plus/minus

Betting Trends:

Milwaukee Bucks:

  • 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games

  • 2-4 SU in last 6 vs. Indiana

  • Lillard out, Giannis uncertain

Indiana Pacers:

  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games

  • 15-2 SU in last 17 at home

  • 8-2 SU in last 10 overall

Exact Score Prediction:

Indiana Pacers 120 – Milwaukee Bucks 106

Our Best Bet:

Indiana Pacers -7.5 (-110)

With both Giannis and Lillard either out or hobbled, this is Indiana’s game to lose. Their offense has been too fluid, their defense too aggressive, and their bench too deep for Milwaukee’s injury-depleted squad to hang around. Expect Indiana to ride the home crowd and clinch the series in convincing fashion.

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